The Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous potential military flashpoint in the world today, and American defense officials are more candid about the risk than at any previous point. Admiral John Aquilino, the former INDOPACOM commander, told Congress: "I believe the threat is closer than most think." This is an assessment of what that means and what the US is doing about it.
China has been explicit that it considers Taiwan a core national interest and that "reunification" β by force if necessary β is an objective it will pursue. China's military modernization over the past 20 years has been explicitly designed around the Taiwan scenario: anti-access/area denial systems to keep the US Navy at distance, hypersonic missiles to threaten carrier strike groups, and a massive amphibious assault capability.
US deterrence rests on three pillars. Strategic ambiguity β the US policy of neither explicitly committing to nor ruling out military intervention β is designed to deter both Chinese aggression and Taiwanese provocations. Forward military presence β the Pacific repositioning described elsewhere on this site β demonstrates capability and intent. And arms sales to Taiwan have equipped Taiwanese forces to make an invasion costly enough to give Chinese planners serious pause.
The honest assessment from most US defense analysts is that the risk of conflict has increased meaningfully since 2020, driven by Chinese military advances, Taiwan's increased democratic assertiveness, and the precedent of the Ukraine invasion demonstrating that major powers are willing to use force. But deterrence remains intact, and Chinese leadership understands the economic catastrophe a Taiwan conflict would represent.
