Saudi Arabia is undergoing the most dramatic social and economic transformation in its history under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 program, and the change is reshaping a US-Saudi relationship that has been defined for 80 years by a simple bargain: American security guarantees in exchange for stable oil supplies.
Vision 2030 is real and ambitious. Saudi Arabia has opened cinemas, concerts, and mixed-gender entertainment for the first time. Women are now driving, working, and participating in public life in ways unimaginable a decade ago. Tourism has exploded, reaching 100 million visitors last year. And a $500 billion futuristic city called NEOM is under construction in the northwest desert, intended to become a global technology and innovation hub.
The economic diversification goal is driven by a clear-eyed recognition that oil's dominance will not last forever. Saudi Arabia currently derives 70% of government revenues from oil. Vision 2030 targets reducing that to 30% by decade's end, with tourism, entertainment, mining, manufacturing, and financial services filling the gap.
The US-Saudi relationship is simultaneously more complex than ever. The US is less dependent on Saudi oil than at any point since the 1970s β American shale production has made the US energy independent. Saudi Arabia is diversifying its security relationships, expanding ties with China and Russia. And the Khashoggi assassination created a human rights dimension to the relationship that no administration has fully resolved.
