Cuba is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the early 1990s, with daily electricity blackouts averaging 14 hours, fuel shortages halting transportation, and food prices rising faster than government subsidies can offset. More than 400,000 Cubans emigrated in the past 18 months, an extraordinary exodus that is draining the island of educated professionals and young people.
Analysts disagree about whether the crisis portends meaningful political change. The Cuban government retains control of security services and has demonstrated willingness to use force against dissent, as evidenced by the prosecution of hundreds of protesters from the July 2021 demonstrations. However, the scale of the current crisis is testing the loyalty calculations of mid-level officials and military officers in ways that previous downturns did not.
